Research

Working papers and active projects. Expand a title for the abstract; preprints and replication code are linked where available.

01 / Under review

Under review

Racial Segregation and Black-White Longevity Disparities

Thelonious Goerz

Abstract

Racial segregation is widely understood to be a mechanism linking racial stratification to zero-sum Black-White outcomes. However, historical and demographic evidence show that segregation also shapes broader, macro-level dynamics, such as income sorting, the availability of public goods, and policy outcomes that undermine the well-being of all residents. This paper tests the argument that segregation leads to White advantage and, simultaneously, Black disadvantage. To do so, I link 1905-1920 birth cohorts in the 1940 Census to Social Security death records and use an instrumental-variable design leveraging variation in government fragmentation to estimate the effect of segregation on longevity. Estimates reveal a 10-point increase in segregation reduced Black and White longevity by 0.44 and 0.29 years, respectively, with pronounced harms for less-educated Whites. These findings highlight how mechanisms of racial stratification intersect with population processes and social class to shape life chances across racial groups, thus countering zero-sum arguments.

  • Causal inference
  • Historical demography
  • Linked census data
Under review

Reinforcing Inequality: Within Family Division of Transfers and Bequests

Adriana M. Reyes and Thelonious Goerz

Abstract

Intergenerational transfers are a key mechanism through which families reproduce or mitigate inequality. While prior research highlights the unequal and needs-based nature of inter vivos transfers, bequests are often viewed as more normatively equal. This study examines whether bequests function as a corrective to earlier disparities or reinforce inequalities within families. Using family fixed effects models and data from the Health and Retirement Study, we find that children who receive more inter vivos transfers are also more likely to receive a bequest and a larger bequest. We find no moderating role of education, while children who do not own a home are more likely to receive a bequest. These patterns suggest that bequests may reinforce rather than offset prior inequalities. Findings have implications for understanding the reproduction of advantage and for policies aimed at reducing wealth inequality across generations.

  • Family demography
  • Wealth transfers
  • HRS

02 / Works in progress

In progress

Declining Significance or Changing Bases? Income and Racial Segregation, 1970-2020

Thelonious Goerz and Matt Hall

Abstract

Abstract forthcoming — this project is in active development. — PAA 2026, oral presentation (scheduled).

  • Segregation
  • Income sorting
  • Decennial census
In progress

Inherited Obligations: How Receiving an Inheritance Shapes Bequest Intentions

Thelonious Goerz and Adriana M. Reyes

Abstract

Abstract forthcoming — this project is in active development.

  • Wealth transfers
  • Family demography
In progress

Japanese Classification After Internment: Evidence from Linked 1940-1950 Census Records

Thelonious Goerz and Jiwon Lee (equal authorship)

Abstract

Abstract forthcoming — this project is in active development.

  • Race & ethnicity
  • Record linkage
  • Historical demography

03 / Selected presentations